Despite recent sideways volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) has closed a daily candle above $95,000 every day since November 27, indicating continuous buying pressure from investors at a higher range.
A Look at Historical Data and Fibonacci Extensions
Danny Marques, a Bitcoin mining industry researcher, recently highlighted a study based on the past three bull cycles. The study includes BTC’s post-halving performance and targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
The researcher said that after ‘back-testing’ data over the past three cycles, Bitcoin has chronologically topped around the 3.618, 2.272, and 1.618 Fibonacci levels in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Thus, the minimum target attained by BTC during each cycle is the 1.618 FIB level.
Marques added, "Assuming that the macro does NOT deteriorate like in 2020, prior cycle observations show that Bitcoin could land anywhere between the 1.618 and the 2.272 fib. In other words, 1 BTC $173,646 – $461,135 in fiat terms."
Decaying Peaks Study: A More Conservative Outlook
In Q3, Cointelegraph reported a similar study that evaluated BTC targets for 2025-2026 based on decaying peaks from past cycle highs. The research was conducted through an ‘exponential decay fit analysis,’ which led to a minimum price target of $199,998 for BTC by the end of Q4 2025.
However, the upper range was more conservative at $288,211 compared to Marques’ maximum price target of $461,135.
What’s Behind the Price Movement?
Bitcoin miners are ‘diamond handing’ their BTC in 2024. On-Chain College, an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, said that miners were facilitating high-selling pressure back in January 2021, with Bitcoin miners’ net position change rising as high as 41,000 BTC.
However, the trend has shifted, and miners are now holding onto their BTC. The analyst added, "Long gone are the days of mine BTC and sell to cover costs plus keep profit. A new wave of more consistent hodling AND buying from miners is upon us."
Technical Analysis: Coiling at a Higher Price Range
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price continues to coil at a higher price range, with immediate targets between $115,000 and $126,500. Unless BTC closes a daily candle below $95,000 or drops below $90,200, the crypto asset is expected to attain higher prices before the end of 2024.
Breaking News: A Surge Above the Blue Line
Titan of Crypto, an independent crypto analyst, shared a similar outlook, saying that BTC has ‘surged’ above the blue line on the ‘power law corridor.’ Based on historical data, the trader expected the BTC price to move rapidly, as "such breakouts often signal explosive upward moves."
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The long-term price expectation for Bitcoin in 2025 remains high. Ernst and Young consultant, [Consultant’s Name], said that despite recent volatility, the overall trend is still bullish.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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Note: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or recommendations.
